A deadly virus is carried by a certain kind of mouse which dwells
in and around the floor of a 200 acre old growth forest in southwestern
United States. On the edge of this forest is a small village with
a population of 23. When the mouse population gets too large, the
mice venture more into the village in search of food and new places
to inhabit, thereby spreading their virus and causing villagers to
become infected. There is also a certain kind of owl which dwells
in this forest, and as we all know, owls love to feast on mice. Since
the virus is only harmful to humans, the owls are unaffected as long
as the number of owls stays at a reasonable level, the mice population
is kept at a comfortable level and the virus is not transmitted to
the villagers. However, visualizing large profits, the owner of the
old growth forest begins to sell timber to a large lumber company;
this, of course, removes the homes of the owls, and they either die
off or must leave in search of other shelter.
The interrelationships of the villagers, virus, mice, owls, trees
and loggers can be described by the following mathematical model.